Forecast of winter weather trends and the time of appearance of severe cold and severe cold
It is forecasted that in this winter, the number of severe cold and frost days will be lower than the multi-year average. However, there is still a possibility of short-term severe cold and frost spells.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in the period from November 2026 to January 2027, the El Nino state continues to maintain very strong intensity with a very high probability of 96% and higher than the forecast for the same period last month at 3%. In which, the probability of El Nino reaching strong intensity is only 4%.
In November 2026, the average temperature across the country is generally 1 - 2 degrees Celsius higher than the multi-year average of the same period. In December 2026 and January 2027, the average temperature is generally 0.5 - 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the multi-year average, especially in the Central and Southern highlands, it is 1 - 2 degrees Celsius higher.
Cold air is likely to be weaker than the average of many years. Severe cold and frost are likely to appear later than the climate law. The number of days of severe cold and frost in the North and North Central regions is generally lower than the average of many years in the same period. However, there is still a possibility of severe cold and frost waves causing strong temperature drops but occurring short-term.
In the period February - April 2027, El Nino continues to be maintained but tends to weaken in intensity. The probability of El Nino reaching very strong intensity decreased from 46% in the period January - March 2027 to 6% in February - April 2027. It is likely that El Nino will have moderate to strong intensity, with corresponding probabilities of 44% and 32%.
After that, El Nino is likely to continue to weaken but will remain until the first half of summer 2027 before gradually returning to a neutral state.
From February to April 2027, the average temperature across the country is generally 1 - 2 degrees Celsius higher than the multi-year average of the same period, in some places 2 degrees Celsius higher.
Cold air in the period from February to April tends to be weaker than the multi-year average. The Northern and North Central regions are still likely to experience cold air waves causing severe cold and frost. The number of days of severe cold and frost is likely to be lower than the multi-year average for the same period. In the late winter, the number of days of light rain and drizzle in the North is likely to be less than the multi-year average.
Read the original here
