El Nino gradually strengthens, causing the rainy season to end early, the risk of saltwater intrusion increases in the South

Faced with the forecast that the El Nino phenomenon will continue to strengthen in the last months of 2026, the meteorological agency warns that the South may face many extreme weather patterns.

According to Mr. Le Dinh Quyet - Head of Hydrometeorological Forecasting Department, Southern Hydrometeorological Station, the El Nino phenomenon is still continuing to strengthen. Based on the forecast models of the unit as well as referring to climate forecast models in the world, El Nino will continue to increase in intensity from now until the end of 2026 and is likely to reach a very strong level by the end of 2026, early 2027.

Mr. Quyet said that El Nino is a climate fluctuation that has a major impact on Southeast Asia, including the South. Reality shows that years with strong El Nino events all record clear impacts. The first manifestation is high air temperatures, followed by reduced rainfall, leading to the risk of water shortage.

For the Southern region, the Southern Hydrometeorological Station predicts that the 2026 rainy season will have a total rainfall lower than the multi-year average and end earlier than usual. If in normal years, the rainy season usually lasts until mid- or late November, this year it is likely to end at the end of October or early November, common in the Mekong Delta provinces.

The consequence of strong El Nino is a shortage of water sources, increasing the risk of drought and saltwater intrusion. Currently, the intensity of El Nino is assessed to be equivalent, even higher than the period 2015-2016. Therefore, saltwater intrusion is likely to encroach deep into the river and canal system in the Mekong Delta, in some places from 80-100 km from the estuary.

Localities such as Soc Trang, Vinh Long, Ca Mau, Can Tho, Tay Ninh and some other areas are forecast to be significantly affected by drought and saltwater intrusion if El Nino develops according to the forecast scenario.

Not only affecting the South, El Nino also has a widespread impact. The water source of the Mekong Delta depends on both local rainfall and flow from the upper Mekong River. However, this year, rainfall in the upstream area is also forecast to be significantly depleted, causing the total amount of water flowing into the delta to decrease, increasing the risk of water shortage in the dry season.

Faced with these forecasts, localities need to proactively implement response solutions right now. First of all, build a plan to maximize fresh water storage in the 2026 rainy season to serve domestic and production needs when the dry season comes.

In addition, it is necessary to proactively build and implement operating plans for salinity prevention and freshwater storage works according to prepared scenarios, in order to minimize damage when drought and saltwater intrusion occur.

Local authorities need to coordinate with the agricultural sector to develop appropriate production plans, guide people to choose crop and livestock structures that can adapt to increasingly severe drought, water shortage and saltwater intrusion, thereby minimizing risks for agricultural production and people's lives.

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