Vietnam faces the risk of negative population growth
The situation of late marriage, late childbirth, having few children or not wanting to have children is increasingly common, especially in urban areas and localities with low birth rates. The Ministry of Health warns that if this trend continues, it will directly affect the workforce, social security and sustainable development goals.
Live longer, but the gap to " live well" is still large
Mr. Le Thanh Dung - Director of the Population Department (Ministry of Health) - said that Vietnam is facing 4 major challenges: The birth rate is below the replacement level; there is an imbalance between sexes at birth; rapid population aging and limited population quality. These challenges are intertwined, directly affecting the lives of each family and the country's long-term development foundation.
According to the 2025 population summary report, the total birth rate continues to decrease over the years: From 2.01 children/woman (2022) to 1.96 (2023) and 1.91 (2024) - the lowest level ever recorded.
Notably, the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children is currently only maintained in about 17% of provinces and cities. This means that most localities have fallen into the low birth rate group. "If the low birth rate continues, the risk of population reduction in the future is real, leading to labor shortage and increasing the burden of payment for the social security system" - Mr. Le Thanh Dung warned.
In parallel with the decrease in birth rate, the sex ratio at birth is still high: In 2024, it will be 111.4 boys/100 girls. This is a sign of the risk of male surplus in the future, leading to many consequences such as difficulties in marriage, changes in family structure and social problems arising if not controlled promptly.
Another challenge that is accelerating strongly is population aging. Vietnam officially entered the aging stage in 2011 and is expected to become a country with an aging population after 2036.
In 2024, the average life expectancy will reach 74.7 years, but the number of years of living healthy is only about 65 years. The gap between "living long" and "living well" poses a big demand for long-term health care, social services, as well as preparing resources to meet the increasing needs of the elderly population.
The Ministry of Health admits that policies to support and encourage the birth of two children in many places are still limited; mainly new in the construction or pilot phase, not strong enough to create clear and sustainable changes.
Completing institutions, implementing the Population Law from 1.7.2026
Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen said that in 2025, population work will continue to receive the attention of the Party and the State, with many important documents creating a corridor for the new period. Notably, the Population Law has been passed by the National Assembly and will take effect from July 1, 2026.
The leaders of the Ministry of Health require the issuance of documents guiding the implementation to be timely, synchronous, ensuring the effectiveness of the Law at the same time as the effective date. According to the plan, the decrees and guiding circulars must be completed no later than May 15, 2026.
Along with that, the Ministry of Health will advise the National Steering Committee on Population and Development; prepare a conference to summarize activities and deploy population work tasks in 2026. Another important task is to soon stabilize the model of organizing the population work apparatus according to the two-level local government model, ensuring a smooth operating system from the province to the grassroots.
The population orientation in 2026 is determined in the context of Vietnam simultaneously facing many demographic challenges. The top focus is to encourage the birth of two children, gradually bringing the birth rate back to the replacement level, suitable for the characteristics of each region, area and population group. At the same time, continue to control gender imbalances at birth through communication on behavior change, perfecting institutions and increasing supervision of technology abuse to select gender.
At the same time, improving population quality is promoted through consultation - pre-marital health check-ups, prenatal and newborn screening, and strengthening the quality of family planning services. With aging, the message is not only to " live long" but also to move towards "living well", reducing the burden of disease, increasing the ability to self-care and participate in social life of the elderly.
The average life expectancy of 74.7 years is a positive milestone. But to make that joy complete, Vietnam will have to solve the "dual problem" of low birth rate and population aging with practical actions: Clear institutions, strong enough resources, reliable data, solid organizational structure and synchronous solutions to properly address the difficulties of the people - especially young families and the workforce" - Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen said.
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