New forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025
Many international organizations have also adjusted their forecasts for Vietnam's GDP growth in response to positive economic results in recent times.
Raising GDP growth forecast for 2025
According to the Ministry of Finance, as of November 15, the total import-export turnover of the country has reached 801 billion USD, an increase of over 17% (equivalent to 117.36 billion USD) over the same period in 2024, creating a bright spot in the context of many unusual global trade. Vietnam's economy has recorded many encouraging results: the industrial and construction sector has achieved outstanding results; the business sector is vibrant, tourism services are improving and the macro environment is stable.
Many international organizations have also adjusted their Vietnam's growth forecast. In particular, HSBC has raised its growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.9% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026. This is also the closest forecast compared to Vietnam's growth target in 2025, which is over 8%.
HSBC emphasized that Vietnam's surprisingly 8.2% increase in the third quarter was "only of a class". This result is much higher than the market's expectations of 7.2% over the same period last year, making Vietnam once again the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia.
Most recently, United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised Vietnam's 2025 growth forecast from 7.5% to 7.7% in the Q4 Economic Prospects Report. According to UOB, Vietnam's outstanding achievements in recent times mainly come from vibrant international trade activities and strong increases in production output. This forecast is also close to the target of over 8% set by Vietnam.
In the Macroeconomic Report published at the end of October 2025, Standard Chartered Bank raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7.5% (in the July report, Standard Chartered Bank forecasted Vietnam's growth in 2025 to 6.1%). The forecast growth rate for 2026 has also been increased to 7.2%.
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan - Senior Economist in charge of Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered Bank - shared: "Vietnam's resilience and adaptability are demonstrated by successfully attracting strong FDI flows, stable export growth and strengthening Vietnam's strategic role in diversifying the global supply chain and showing strong prospects for continuous economic growth".
Main growth drivers recover in 2026
At the 10th Session, the National Assembly passed a Resolution on the socio-economic development plan for 2026, setting a target of increasing the gross domestic product (GDP) by 10% or more, with GDP per capita reaching 5,400-5,500 USD...
Dr. Can Van Luc - Member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council) - predicts that Vietnam's GDP growth in 2026 will reach 9-10%.
According to this expert, the main growth drivers are forecast to recover evenly, in which public investment is strongly promoted with a 100% disbursement plan (ie about 34-35 billion USD, equivalent to 7% of GDP). With this figure, Vietnam currently has the highest public investment rate compared to GDP in Asia.
Mr. Luc said that good public investment disbursement can help economic growth increase by about 2 percentage points. In addition, domestic consumption is currently considered the most important driving force, contributing 60% to economic growth.
Regarding interest rates, Mr. Luc said that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is tending to cut interest rates, and is expected to have another interest rate cut in December. According to him, the US interest rate cut is a positive signal for Vietnamese enterprises because it helps reduce USD interest rates, reduce exchange rate pressure and reduce capital flow from Vietnam.
As for the domestic market, Mr. Luc commented that the State Bank plans to continue to maintain low operating interest rates to promote growth. Although deposit interest rates may increase due to the attractiveness of other investment channels (storages, real estate), the State Bank and the Government require banks not to increase lending interest rates, meaning banks accept to reduce profit margins.
As for exchange rates, Mr. Luc said that next year's exchange rate will be "easter" when the Fed cuts interest rates and the gold market will be more stable.
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